Tuesday, June 22, 2010

My General Election - Epilogue - Where Now?

Throughout the election campaign I always had it in mind that we could be doing it all again very soon. The polls pointed to a hung parliament with the Conservatives taking the most seats and I thought, if that were the result, that David Cameron would form a minority government, write a Queens’ speech and then call another election for October.

It was my intention to run again in this second election – if selected by my local party. In a way I was looking forward to another campaign, mostly because we wouldn’t be burdened by the council elections taking place at the same time – and hence we would be free to campaign around other areas of the constituency that we didn’t get to – especially on the Isle of Sheppey.

I had all sorts of thoughts for things we could do differently – more canvassing, more telephone canvassing, an earlier Freepost leaflet (if possible), more on-line work, different high street stalls. The main drawback would be that, after fighting a general election, we don’t have any cash – a problem that the other two major parties would not have, of course.

To our surprise, though, we have a Con-Lib Dem coalition government which must have a good chance of surviving for a full five year term. So there are two questions. Where now for the Sittingbourne and Sheppey Liberal Democrats? And where now for Keith Nevols?

The answer to the first is that we have two aims – one to build the local party up, the other to work towards the 2011 Council elections.

I am getting back to people who contacted me during the campaign with the intention of enrolling more members and supporters. We lost two members who disagreed with the coalition but on the other hand have recruited many more and, as I type, continuing to do so. I am now the membership secretary so I can concentrate on this and involving our members and supporters – as well as organising drives to add to our numbers.

The 2011 Swale council elections are ‘all-outs.’ Instead of elected in ‘thirds’ as in previous years, every one of the Council’s 47 seats is up for election – and then there will be no more for four years.

Now of course we won’t be able to contest all 47 – we could only do 13 this year – so it will be a case of working out a strategy, selecting target wards, and finding good candidates. That is our immediate aim. Hopefully if the first objective of building up the party continues to be met, then so can the second objective of putting more Liberal Democrats into Swale’s council chamber.

Where now for me? It is clear that Sittingbourne and Sheppey are unlikely to have a Liberal Democrat MP for a while. The seat will be Conservative for some time. And there has been no Liberal MP in Kent since 1929. Even a strong campaign like Peter Carroll’s, of Gurkha fame, in Maidstone and the Weald still fell some way short.

So for parliamentary ambitions I will have to look elsewhere. And it will be a couple of years or so before local parties start looking for candidates so it will be a case of keeping an ear to the ground.

It is an end to the general election story of 2010 and back to the local story for the months ahead. In Sittingbourne and Sheppey, the fight for liberal democratic values goes on.

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

My General Election - Part Four - Election Day

As the final days of the campaign drifted on, there was further canvassing, leafleting, school visits, racing round to rally troops, up early to catch commuters and so on.

At this stage we noticed a disturbing trend – people who had considered voting for us were now drifting back to the two main parties. David Cameron had impressed in the last leaders’ debate and the continual media attacks on us were hitting home.

The big day arrived – and I got up at 4am for a 25 hour day. The defence of Murston remained our primary target. Roman was our secondary target, where we figured Labour might be weak (we were partly wrong here, Labour’s vote did fall but the Conservatives scooped the seat). We had leafleted and canvassed both areas and by 5am I was in Murston delivering the ‘Good Mornings’.

Anyone who has worked in an election campaign would know how busy the actual day is. Lots of good mornings leaflets, checking tellers are in place, collecting numbers, and knocking up supporters. I also had to remember to vote myself of course and give my neighbour a lift, and I was surprised to see a queue at the station. I had heard that Gordon, the Conservative candidate, was visiting all the polling stations. I would have loved to do the same but alas was too busy.

By 9.30pm I had knocked on my final door. If they were not going to vote now, they never will! It was time to go home for a shower and a change of suit. The election campaign was finally over.

Now sporting my great new large yellow rosette (specially purchased for the count) I drove to the Swallows Leisure Centre.

Parliamentary counts are exactly like you see on the telly. Rows of people, furiously counting papers, while everyone else wears a rosette and aimlessly wanders about. There are the media there however so I spoke to the local press, and BBC Kent asked me to go on a few times. In return, they kept me in touch with our target seats – that we had got Eastbourne but not Maidstone.

I stood next to one table while a box was being emptied and sorted and, as the papers were sifted through, could see that the Conservatives had about half while Labour had slightly more than we did. I estimated 50-25-20 which, on the basis of just a few dozen votes, was not a bad guess.

Mad Mike, the Loony candidate, kindly offered me a banana which, as there was no food about, was appreciated. With David Miliband in mind, I was wary of photographers but looked around to find everyone else was also munching on a banana so it would be all right.

As the night went on (and on) a table was set up in the centre of the hall and bundles of papers put in. When they had to get a second box for the Conservative vote we knew that it was quite clear. However there was further delay because the numbers would not match – they were 30 votes out. As it was obvious that the Conservatives had won by a mile, the popular view was to give the 30 votes to Gordon so we could all go home. But the law is the law.

As 4am came and went, I suggested calling for a recount – although no-one seemed to find that very funny.

Finally we were all called together, agreed the result, and then mounted the stage. Having seen this moment hundreds of times on election nights over the years it did feel strange to stand up there myself.

I later discovered the BBC covered the result by just a blue box appearing on-screen ‘Sittingbourne – Con Hold’ (Sorry, Sheppey). The long haul was over.

Coming soon: the epilogue – where do we go from here?

Monday, June 14, 2010

Labour's leadership conundrum

A break from my memoirs to discuss the Labour leadership contest. Now this is important to all of us for two reasons.

Firstly, it is possible that the winner will be our next Prime Minister so we must take it seriously. Secondly, it is important for any government to have an effective opposition to scrutinise it and keep it on its toes.

Labour party members must ask two questions – who will provide this effective opposition to the government and who is the most likely to win for Labour at the next general election?

Who do we have in the running? The first surprise is who is not running. I thought Alan Johnson had the gravitas and ability to help Labour recover from their defeat and provide tough opposition to David Cameron. And Harriet Harman struck me as someone quite ambitious. I don’t think she would have won, but it was a surprise not to see her have a go. Neither of them are likely to get another chance so presumably now have no ambitions to be Prime Minister.

The favourite is obviously David Miliband who seems to have been the leader in waiting almost as long as Gordon Brown was. He is the choice of Peter Mandelson and Alastair Campbell, who, between them, have run the party for the last 25 years, and will both be powerful allies for him.

Some members may feel they need to move away from New Labour – hence his expression of Next Labour – whatever that means.

Ed Balls is quickly moving away from the Brown government – distancing himself on Iraq and immigration. It was a bit harsh though for the PM to compare him to Alf Garnett – as we discovered during the campaign that immigration was an issue causing a lot of concern. He would be an interesting choice, close to the Brown view, but like David M, he would suffer from being a central part of the last government when the election comes round.

Ed Miliband, although in the cabinet, was not a senior member so may not have this problem. I gather his bandwagon is gaining speed and the effect on his brother must be considered. Have you ever had a work colleague at a lower level suddenly promoted above you? That is how David will feel if the person who has always been his younger brother then becomes his boss.

Watching the hustings it was slightly uncomfortable seeing Ed have a go at his brother – rather like watching a married couple arguing.

Apologies to Andy Burnham but I don’t know enough about you to comment. He seems to be well liked by some Labour MPs.

Let’s face it, we all love Diane Abbott. I am pleased she was able to get in the contest as she is a real wild card and will bring something different to the table. I don’t think Diane has a chance of winning but may well have an effect on the result. She is the oldest candidate, has been an MP the longest, is very well known, is not associated with the last government, and will have a lot of grass roots support. Her inclusion will provoke a real debate about the future direction of the party which will make it interesting for us observers.

So who will win? The winner’s name will be Miliband, or Ed, or both! I would put my money on David Miliband but I don’t think he is someone we should be afraid of.

A problem for Labour is that the party has recently been so dominated by the Blair-Brown partnership that the candidates are struggling to come out of the shadows. Have you ever heard a ‘bring-the-house-down’ speech by David Miliband or won over by the character of Ed Balls? This may not be a problem – how many of us had heard of David Cameron in 2005? – and he (or she) would have five years to get themselves known.

But the first duty of the new leader will be to make a name for himself – and fast!

Friday, June 4, 2010

My General Election - Part Three - Cleggmania

Throughout February and March the pre-campaign campaign continued. I was out most evenings doorstep canvassing around Murston, telephone canvassing at the weekends, attended a couple of functions in London, a meeting at Fulston Manor school, some debates with the other candidates, much deliveries of leaflets, more media interviews, and various email correspondence. I also wrote a series of local policy documents.

On 6 April the election was called - we were under way. I booked my leave from work, we accelerated the pace, we completed our planned timetable up to the election date, and things were going along nicely.

All changed on Thursday 15 April.

I had told the local press that I thought Nick Clegg would do well in the first leader’s debate, that I thought he would put our case across well, and that it was a good opportunity for the party. Watching the debate I was pleased he did exactly that, and was surprised at David Cameron’s poor performance. But none of us saw the aftershock coming when Cleggmania erupted.

Our poll ratings climbed to our highest since the early days of the Alliance, Nick Clegg was being compared to Churchill, the media were horrified and desperate to find some smears, and the public interest dramatically increased.

How did this affect us? This affected us by the fact that the expectations on us had now gained enormously. I received dozens of emails from constituents criticising us. Why haven’t we seen you? Why haven’t you called? Why haven’t we received any leaflets? Why haven’t you got big posters up like the Tories? Why are you invisible? Why are you missing this opportunity? Etc etc.

My main thought was – where were all these people three months ago? We would certainly have appreciated the help.

The obvious answers to the questions were that we did not have the resources. When there are only three or four us out canvassing each night, we can only reach a small part of the constituency. And with leaflets, not only do you need the money to print them, you also need the people to deliver them.

With posters neither us nor Labour could compete with the huge Lord Ashcroft sponsored posters that we saw. And the Conservatives had, wisely, arranged for farmers to display their election boards along the main roads.

Many of these queries came from the Isle of Sheppey. I would have liked to have done more there but we had to give it a low priority – mainly because we could not compete with the island candidates of the other parties and also we were concentrating on the defence of our council seat. (We could not even find candidates for some of the council seats on the island).

I explained all this and attached some briefing notes in my responses. I am not sure everyone bought this. The impression given was that we were simply not doing enough to make the most of Cleggmania – despite the fact that I have never worked harder.

The delay of the Freepost leaflet annoyed me. Every candidate is allowed one leaflet delivered free by post (although you have to pay the printing costs). Labour’s leaflet went out in the first few days with the Conservatives closely behind. I would have liked ours to go out early as well to at least say hello, here I am, and yes we’ve started. Unfortunately, to save costs, the printing had to be co-ordinated with other local parties and so we had to wait for all of them to be ready. Hence most people never got anything from us until the third week of the campaign.

So we had to up the tempo further as Cleggmania hit. Fortunately we did get some helpers and volunteers and were able to get some leaflets printed and delivered on the Isle of Sheppey and other parts of the constituency, but we all now had to work even harder at breakneck pace. We even found some people pleased to find us knocking on their door.

And when we added up all the stats and feedback we realised that the Labour collapse had continued and our boost had put us in second place – which would have been an astonishing result. But alas it was not to be.

Final episode soon – when I’ll tell you about the hectic last week.

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

My General Election - Part Two - The Strategy

The Council’s Local Engagement Forums are usually dull affairs and the one held in January 2010 was no exception. However in the presence of councillors and local media it gave me the opportunity to ask a question and introduce myself as the 'Liberal Democrat parliamentary candidate'. I was of course deleted from the minutes but the damage had been done. At last the news was out and some media interviews resulted.

My first decision was one of my best. It was to ask Elvie Lowe to be my campaign manager. Elvie is a local legend, a councillor for 22 years, former county councillor and parliamentary candidate, and for the last few years, the leader of the Liberal Democrat council group. An experienced campaigner, Elvie organised everything very well with energy and efficiency. Although, of course, the campaign choices (and mistakes) were my responsibility.

In 2005, the Labour MP Derek Wyatt held the seat of Sittingbourne and Sheppey from the Conservative Gordon Henderson by 79 votes. We were a long way behind in third place. As Derek was not re-running, Labour had chosen local council leader Angela Harrison.

Several things were clear. Firstly, given the majority and the national trend, the Conservatives would win the seat. This was confirmed in our early canvassing where Tory votes were holding solid while Labour’s were drifting – although we didn’t yet know who to.

Secondly, there was a danger of us getting squeezed should a lot of people vote negatively. We did find some people who were our supporters but were voting Labour because they were more concerned with keeping Gordon out. (Even a member did this!!)

Thirdly, as we were not a target seat, or remotely winnable, there would be no money nor ‘faces’ coming from central office. We were on our own.

Fourthly, we had discovered from experience that people on the Isle of Sheppey will generally vote for people from the Isle of Sheppey. Both the other two candidates were very Sheppey-based so we would be at a disadvantage there.

Finally we guessed, correctly, that the general election would be the same day as the local council elections where we would be defending one of our few seats. This would have to be factored into our strategy.

Given all this, it would be quite easy to not bother with a campaign and travel to Eastbourne or Maidstone to help out with the local target campaigns there. But I didn’t want to abandon Sittingbourne and Sheppey so easily without a fight, especially my first shot at parliament. Labour dismissed this as ‘a vanity campaign’ – well, maybe but what is wrong with ambition? (You will see that Labour spent a lot of time criticising us – more on that in future episodes!).

One of our Council seats were up for re-election in May 2010. As we only had four, we were rather keen to hold on to it. Unfortunately our defending Councillor was unable to run again due to work pressures and we also had a shortage of candidates. Our best available candidate was, to be honest, me! But should I run for parliament and for council at the same time? (The Labour candidate had the same issue – but she was defending her own council seat).

After, shall we say, an open debate and a frank exchange of views, it was decided that I would do so. Thus our council campaign would be centred on Murston ward, an area to the east of Sittingbourne, and also on Roman, a Labour held ward which was next door to Murston.

We held two team strategy meetings in late January which did not go well and so I decided to reduce the strategy discussions to a meeting of two – me and Elvie. This made decision making much easier.

So with canvass leaflets ready, clipboards prepared and everyone primed for action, we were hitting the streets of Murston and knocked on the first doors.

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

My General Election - Part One

In October 2009 I got the welcome and surprising news that, following a tough evaluation day, my application to join the approved list of parliamentary candidates was successful. I could now apply to represent the Liberal Democrats in any UK parliamentary seat.

There was only one seat I wanted to have a shot at – my local seat of Sittingbourne and Sheppey – and I knew our local party were looking for a candidate. I immediately completed the application form, put together my manifesto, and submitted it to the executive committee. (I also got details of the almost-next-door Chatham and Aylesford seat in case I was not successful).

I was the only applicant! The local Labour party criticised me for this point but I am not sure what I could have done about that. The party had advertised in Liberal Democrat circles and press etc but only I had come forward. There was another possible candidate from the local party but he had by now defected to Labour.

Of course it was not a foregone conclusion. The approval of the committee and the local party members was still required. If not successful, central office would have sent a candidate and I would have applied elsewhere. After an interview with questions coming from all places, the committee approved me to go to hustings. The first hurdle was crossed.

By now both Labour and UKIP had selected their candidates, the Conservative candidate had long been in place, David Cameron posters were appearing all over London, and there were rumours of a March 2010 election. So I was keen to get on with things.

The Hustings were confirmed for 12 January 2010. A room was booked, invitations sent out to the 95 local party members, my speech was drafted and re-drafted (my wife was the audience), I put on my smartest suit, prepared for the questions I might get, marched to the hustings with confidence to face all-comers – and seven people turned up!!

This tiny turnout was a bitter disappointment. Admittedly it was in the middle of all the snow we had in January and the roads and pavements were in a bad condition, but two of the seven were over 80 years old – if they could make it why could so few else? The Labour party criticised me for this as well and here they may have had a point.

But anyway we went through the whole process which went well and I got a unanimous 9-0 approval (two were postal votes). The paperwork was all signed and witnessed etc and I gave my first interview as a parliamentary candidate to a group of students from London.

I was eager to get going and get myself known to the people of Sittingbourne and Sheppey.

First idea: let’s print and deliver a leaflet to everyone in the constituency to introduce myself. Sorry, no money to do that.

Second: write to all the non-active local party members to introduce myself, set out my plans and ideas, and ask for their help in the campaign. Only two replies.

Third: send press releases to both local newspapers announcing my candidacy. They both ignored it.

I knew this campaign would be a hard task but already I could see it was going to be much harder than I had imagined.

Thursday, May 13, 2010

Now get to work!

Things look promising. I’ve studied the coalition document and have been pleasantly surprised by the amount of Liberal Democrat policies that are in there. There has been a good attempt to capture areas of common ground – which is presumably why the negotiations took so long.

David Cameron has surprised us all. He could easily have refused to talk to anyone, bulldozed ahead with a minority government, and waited for a favourable moment to call another election. Instead he has shown great flexibility and compromise and putting national interests ahead of his party to secure a government for the country, and deserves praise for doing so.

This is so unlike the Conservative party that we have known all these years. Can you imagine Margaret Thatcher allowing Liberal Democrats in her cabinet? Norman Tebbit’s anger means we must be right.

Some grumbles: in the document there is reference to education funding, but not specifically tuition fees. There is no mention of whether the all-party talks on elderly care funding will be resumed. And the referendum remains on alternative vote rather than a PR system. But we’re getting there.

Five Cabinet ministers and 20 ministers in all is a good achievement and more than expected, although I am not sure what Nick Clegg would be doing. I am pleased that Vince Cable has a good job as, at the age of 67, I had feared his talents would be lost to the nation. Instead he must now be a contender for Chancellor of the Exchequer in two or three years once George is moved sideways.

So now we wait for the Queen’s speech and the budget. No more can people pompously say ‘Lib Dems can promise what they like because they will never be in a position to govern.’ It will be strange to defend the government after opposing it for 25 years but we must deliver – we must ensure that good liberal democrat policies are put in place and that the coalition government is a success.